What can Richard Farleigh from Dragons Den teach us about FX Trading and Investing? A few weeks back I got up very early indeed (for me) to go and watch Richard Farleigh talk about Foreign Exchange (FX) trading and investing in the City. You might remember Richard from being the Aussie and Mr Nice Guy in Dragons Den, always sitting to the left of Duncan Bannatyne before he was replaced by James Caan.
Richard made his millions from trading and was both a hedge fund manager and also ran a private fund for a multi-billionaire. He then retired to Monaco in his 30s. The first thing I learned is that Richard is a fundamentalist investor and doesn't mind being in a trade for many years - his longest trade is 5 years. It's not that he is not a trader, it is just that he believes the market dictates the time, not you. He has the utmost respect for the market - his book, Taming the Lion, takes the analogy of the lion tamer, who, although he is in control, fears what the lion can do to him.
So here's what I learned from Richard. And when you read the below, remember that he is talking about FX - this might not apply to trading and investing in stocks.
1. In crisis, there's always an opportunity - think September 11th, Iraq War, Thai Tsunami and most recently, Japan. Although these things don't come around very often, these bring with them big opportunities and you should be ready for them. Have a plan now for when they occur.
2. The market is always right - respect the market, not the experts. Unlike most people, Richard does not believe that the markets over-react and that the current price is always the right price. In other words, don't bet against the market and don't be a contrarian hero. Let the market tell you when to enter.
3. Always go with the trend - Richard has done extensive analysis on this and proves that you make more money going with the trend than against it. So he agrees with the age-old adage, The trend is your friend'.
4. Technical Analysis is hocus pocus - most surprising to everyone in the room, Richard thought that chart patterns and technical analysis was hocus pocus, especially naming Fibonacci and Gann. This was doubly interesting because Richard is a bit of a maths genius and has concluded that they don't work. I tend to agree that in FX the same technical rules that apply in stocks just don't seem to apply. Fundamentals are more important - go with the overall trend and then pick your entry points in accordance to this. Also, give yourself time to be right. You might get into a trade too early and make a loss but that doesn't mean you can't get back into the trade again.
5. Manage and embrace risk - Richard made a point of talking about asymetric risk where some systems are right 9/10 times, but the one time you lose more than the 9 put together. This is a bad system and a few of the trading robots being touted out there based on this system. He cites the example of the casinos that have a 55% chance of winning against your 45%, which doesn't sound much but the casino always makes the money. Richard used to count cards in casinos a practice casinos frown upon because it is the only way to beat the casinos (apart from luck). Richard also talks about the time a friend told him that he had invested in a movie and turned £1 million into £10 million. Sound like a lot of money ? Richard thought it was a bad investment ... because it was in the hit film, Crocodile Dundee, the 6th highest grossing film of all time. And if that was the highest grossing film and only made 10 times the return then the only conclusion was that investing in movies was very risky indeed.
6. Prices go further than you expect - and that's why you must keep your profits going and don't come out too early. The market can surprise you and keep going for much longer than you expect. We hope that you enjoyed this month's article.
Marcus at National Achievers Congress
I am going to be opening the event - you must have heard about it by now. Richard Branson, Alan Sugar, Tony Robbins, Marcus de Maria :-)
I hope to see you there - only 2 weeks to go. It is going to be the event of the year, everyone who is everyone will be there.
You do realise that this is the first time in roughly 5 years that Tony has been in London for an event. We can't wait! If you want to join us, then you can find out more about it here
https://successr.infusionsoft.com/go/72/marcus/
Until next week
Marcus




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